Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.015290 0.017312 0.019519 0.022109 0.025070 0.028353 0.032275
2024-10-20 0.011836 0.014514 0.017694 0.021760 0.026841 0.033001 0.041072
2024-10-27 0.009726 0.012568 0.016135 0.020966 0.027371 0.035625 0.047146
2024-11-03 0.008825 0.011911 0.015968 0.021731 0.029770 0.040677 0.056753
2024-11-10 0.008077 0.011316 0.015747 0.022308 0.031872 0.045448 0.066441
2024-11-17 0.007459 0.010802 0.015541 0.022823 0.033866 0.050197 0.076575
2024-11-24 0.006727 0.010031 0.014864 0.022539 0.034595 0.053090 0.084159
2024-12-01 0.006131 0.009390 0.014297 0.022332 0.035372 0.056071 0.092147
2024-12-08 0.005626 0.008835 0.013796 0.022154 0.036140 0.059064 0.100432
2024-12-15 0.005343 0.008596 0.013758 0.022700 0.038119 0.064206 0.112928
2024-12-22 0.004939 0.008121 0.013291 0.022476 0.038753 0.067097 0.121733
2024-12-29 0.004761 0.008002 0.013396 0.023224 0.041134 0.073254 0.137202
2025-01-05 0.004314 0.007396 0.012636 0.022410 0.040675 0.074325 0.143336
2025-01-12 0.003989 0.006975 0.012162 0.022063 0.041043 0.076968 0.152884
2025-01-19 0.003628 0.006460 0.011476 0.021256 0.040445 0.077683 0.158582
2025-01-26 0.003531 0.006411 0.011626 0.022033 0.042987 0.084792 0.178461
2025-02-02 0.003413 0.006315 0.011677 0.022619 0.045200 0.091462 0.198247
2025-02-09 0.003295 0.006208 0.011697 0.023142 0.047330 0.098179 0.218999
2025-02-16 0.003090 0.005915 0.011334 0.022853 0.047725 0.101237 0.231755
2025-02-23 0.002911 0.005660 0.011024 0.022643 0.048261 0.104648 0.245766
2025-03-02 0.002749 0.005428 0.010741 0.022462 0.048839 0.108204 0.260581
2025-03-09 0.002674 0.005365 0.010797 0.023016 0.051118 0.115884 0.286692
2025-03-16 0.002529 0.005145 0.010511 0.022789 0.051578 0.119350 0.302469